Mkhize emerging as ANC president will not revive Mbeki’s mythical cadre

The ANC’s 1997 Mahikeng elective conference had discussion documents titled The National Question in Post94 South Africa, Challenges of Leadership in the current phase, The Character of the ANC and The Core Values of the RDP.

Words like “values” and “discipline” still meant something to the “ANC cadre”. Thabo Mbeki, who emerged as president in 1997, loved the idea of the ANC cadre.

The ANC cadre was this almost mythical character who worked tirelessly and unselfishly to advance the interests of the ruling party which, at the time, were synonymous with the interests of the poor. At that elective conference, four of the top six positions were not contested and Mbeki was elected president unopposed.

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Twenty-five years later, all top six positions in the ruling party are the subjects of furious horse-trading, with the organisation split right down the middle.

Dr Zweli Mkhize, who actually brought President Cyril Ramaphosa back into active politics at 2012 Mangaung elective conference of the ruling party, will be facing off for the party’s top position.

Ramaphosa was brought back to prop up Jacob Zuma’s image at a time when Zuma was hurtling from scandal to scandal and it was decided that a man of Ramaphosa’s relatively clean image – only tainted by Marikana at the time – would go a long way in sanitising the ruling party in the eyes of the voter.

The trick worked for just a short while.

As the ruling party goes into its conference in three days’ time, none of the issues confronting the country are uppermost in the minds of its delegates. The presidential and organisational reports will mean absolutely nothing to the gathered delegates and, even, the media.

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The biggest issue that will be dominating the minds of the voting delegates and the media is: will Ramaphosa survive and be re-elected president of the ANC for a second term?

The year 1997 suddenly feels light years away and the words “discipline”, “values” and “unity” are almost swearwords.

The way the country is battling with load shedding right now it would make so much sense for the ruling party to use its highest decision-making structure as the starting point towards fixing this power crisis. But that’s just wishful thinking.

What is likely going to happen during the five days of the conference is confirmation of the death of the mythical ANC cadre who put the interests of South Africa before those of the organisation or themselves.

Judging by how the provincial congresses have proceeded, it is likely that there is going to be some chaos during the delegate validation process, as well as lots of interruption and booing of all the speakers aligned to both factions.

Hopefully, none of the interruptions will go down to the level of open brawls that could interrupt the conference completely because despite its sharp divisions and open political fights, the ANC is still at the helm of this country and its relative stability is necessary for the economic and political stability of the country.

If Ramaphosa somehow manages to wiggle his way out of this self-created mess that is Phala Phala he, himself, knows that his survival will contribute some nails into the coffin of the ANC cadre.

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Mkhize emerging as the president will also not revive Mbeki’s mythical cadre. It will have exactly the same effect as a Ramaphosa win.

What is South Africa to do? This plane is already in an area of extreme turbulence … all the country can do is hold on and hope for the best.