Gumede’s Stalingrad pattern follows ‘RET godfather’ Zuma

Zandile Gumede’s election as eThekwini regional chair ahead of her fraud trial fits the Stalingrad tactical pattern of the ANC’s radical economic transformation (RET) godfather, former president Jacob Zuma.

It does not necessarily herald RET success at the party’s year-end leadership contest. eThekwini may be the ANC’s biggest region, with the most voting delegates.

But Cyril Ramaphosa won the ANC presidency in 2017 without eThekwini’s support. The exact numbers of delegates for December have not been clarified.

We don’t know the permutations required to win the presidency. RETs are stealing the limelight, pun intended.

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Zuma, who turned 80 yesterday, could not attend court on Monday because of a last-minute “medical emergency”.

This conveniently timed condition coincided with a warning by his legal team that there could be a repeat of the July riots if he were to be treated unjustly.

This is Stalingrad on steroids.

In the World War II Battle of Stalingrad, the Soviet Union won by wearing down Hitler’s invading army, fighting on countless streets and “every corner”.

Zuma is doing the same with his legal ruses, using every means to delay proceedings.

Beyond court matters, the election of dodgy RET characters to key ANC positions could also be Stalingrad tactics, deliberately thwarting Ramaphosa’s efforts to clean up the party.

Gumede may step aside in accordance with an ANC directive, but there will be multiple legal contests in the build-up to the ANC’s December elective conference.

Expect Stalingrad skirmishes about the step-aside rule.

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The process of deciding who votes in December includes audits to determine which branches may send delegates.

There is contestation at thousands of branch general meetings and branch biennial general meetings.

Following allegations of vote-rigging at the party’s 2012 and 2017 national conferences, a new digitised system was introduced.

Electronic scanners are used to verify members’ ID and ANC membership. There have predictably been disputes about who is authorised to use the scanners.

Fighting on every corner, Stalingrad-style. Digitisation was supposed to prevent manipulation, but Ramaphosa conceded last year that there were “technical glitches”.

At this stage, it is not clear how many branch meetings have received the all-clear, nor how many delegates each province will be allowed in December.

As in 2017, there will be challenges over the legality of conferences at every level.

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There may be more politically inspired violence between rivals. Indeed, disputes could even collapse or delay the December conference.

Such an outcome would suit the RET faction(s) hellbent on disruption.

As we have seen, Zuma’s legal team made a link between him and the July riots, which led to the deaths of more than 300 people.

It is not unreasonable to conceptualise all this – Zuma’s legal battles, riots, the election of tainted candidates – as Stalingrad tactics.

The aim is to prevent the clean-up of a criminal enterprise with myriad vested interests stretching to Dubai and beyond.

Winning the ANC presidency might not be enough, as the party might not secure the SA presidency in 2024.

So RETs are spoiling as much as possible to avoid a great reckoning.