Following Russian money in SA may be most dangerous task for anyone

Follow the money. That was the advice of informant Deep Throat who helped investigative journalists uncover the ’70s Watergate scandal that toppled US president Richard Nixon.

Let’s hope South Africa’s investigative journalists are following money links between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and the ANC.

Several commentators think ANC dependence on Russian donations is the most plausible explanation for our government’s allegiance to Putin over his invasion of Ukraine.

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Ryk van Niekerk writes in Moneyweb (13 May): “A few months ago, the ANC was on the cusp of bankruptcy but has seemingly recovered to pay its bills. Could it be as simple as Russia financing the ANC, or members of its leadership, in return for loyalty?”

On 4 June, columnist Peter Bruce invoked fictional Sherlock Holmes: “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

After eliminating nostalgia for Russian help during the struggle, Bruce also rules out commerce, as trade with Russia is minimal.

He concludes: “It must be that the Russians are financing an otherwise bankrupt ANC and have our ruling party well and truly by the short and curlies.”

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But where is the evidence? Thanks to SA’s Political Party Funding Act, which obliges disclosure, there is a record of the following amounts received by the ANC from a company controlled by a sanctioned Russian oligarch:

• Quarter 1 2021/2022: R5 million;
• Quarter 4 2021/2022: R10 million;
• and Quarter 3 2022/2023: R15 million.

The last amount was for the December 2022 ANC conference where President Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elected as party leader.

The three donations total R30 million. Even accounting for millennia of inflation, that’s more than the 30 pieces of silver paid to the biblical betrayer Judas.

But ANC billionaires would not come so cheap. There must be more money, but where and how? Where do financial entanglements start and will they ever end?

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There are unproven assertions that former president Jacob Zuma received a handsome down payment in 2014, when he signed an agreement with Russian nuclear agency Rosatom to build multiple nuclear reactors at an estimated cost of R1 trillion.

In 2017, in the Betrayal of the Promise report, several academics, including Mark Swilling, suggested Russia may have pumped R1 billion into the ANC’s 2016 local government election campaign. Russia does seek to influence elections in various countries, including South Africa.

Journalist Karyn Maughan reports that in February, the Financial Times said South Africa has become one of the biggest sources of pro-Kremlin propaganda and misinformation on social media.

Last month, Bloomberg said Zuma’s daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, “was at the forefront of Russia’s drive to sway public opinion to its side in South Africa and beyond”.

For more than a few roubles. Such allegations may sound plausible but they are unproven. Even the apparent wisdom of Sherlock Holmes does not stand up to scrutiny under strict rules of logic.

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We don’t know the full extent of financial arrangements between Russia and the ANC. Both are riddled with secretive criminals who deal ruthlessly with whistle-blowers.

Following the Russian money in SA may be the most dangerous task for any journalist, lawyer or politician.