Avoid panicking over coronavirus

A frightening aspect of the latest coronavirus outbreak – which emanated from Wuhan in China – is the rapid way it is proliferating.

Basic mathematical modelling shows the graph for the rate of infections is exponential – in other words, accelerating all the time.

Some models predict that if it continues on its course unchecked, the coronavirus pandemic could claim more than 100,000 lives by the end of February.

On the other hand, it is true that if virus outbreaks are contained and sufferers are quarantined, the rate of infections reaches a peak and then tapers off.

However, this early in the saga, it is impossible to tell which way it will go.

In South Africa, although we are a long way from the source of the outbreak, we cannot escape the reality that we are a part of the global community because of our international transport links.

So, it would seem inevitable that the coronavirus will eventually make its presence felt here.

It is reassuring, therefore, to hear the health department say plans are in place, not only to screen new arrivals in the country for the virus, but to set aside three state hospitals for the treatment of sufferers.

Were the virus to arrive here, it could potentially have a serious health impact. Most of the deaths recorded from coronavirus infections have been of those people with compromised immune systems … and in South Africa those vulnerable groups could include the elderly, those with diabetes, HIV/Aids or tuberculosis, as well as cancer patients undergoing treatment.

Whatever happens, we should strive to avoid the serious travelling companion of the virus: panic. In a globally connected world, where technology is the vector for all sorts of fake news and rumours, panic could spread faster – and with more serious consequences – than the virus itself.

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