A VIEW OF THE WEEK: Trump gevaar is solely in SA’s hands

When Trump took to the podium to declare himself the next president of America, and the polls showed he was right, there were more than a few moans around the world.

The sighs and headshakes coming from critics in South Africa spoke of policy misalignment and fears of funding drying up.

Among the programmes diagnosed as on its deathbed is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). The Act allows SA and its neighbours duty-free access for over 1,800 products to the US market. These same trade conditions are extended to 5,000 more products through the Generalised System of Preferences program.

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South Africa is the biggest winner of this agreement, with the Office of the US Trade Representative noting that transactions between the two countries amount to an estimated R442 billion ($25.5 billion) in 2022. We exported goods to the US amounting to around R280 billion ($16.2 billion). 

But Trump’s “America First” stance and previous warning that Agoa would not be renewed when it expires next year have raised serious concerns. They have not been eased by his most recent campaign that called for a universal 10% income tariff on all foreign-made goods. 

If Trump is a man of his word, South Africa will earn less from trading with the US and will likely face more obstacles.

False alarm?

However, it may be a bit of a false alarm, relegated to the long list of populist proposals by a man who is known to live in a different reality, or just make it up as he goes along.

For a start, while the Republicans may hold the Senate, supporters of the Act will likely challenge its expiry and attempt to delay it through bureaucracy.

If it is scrapped, Trump has previously advocated for renegotiated free trade agreements, which doesn’t close the door completely on fair trade.

In both scenarios, it really matters who represents SA in Washington.

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Blame someone else

From children dying of food poisoning to crime, empty taps and broken traffic lights, South Africans have a daily reminder that their government is far too reactionary. Instead of getting up and taking the initiative, they prefer to lie in bed playing the victim of circumstances they had control over.

With Agoa and Trump’s presidency, South Africa must analyse any possible effects and put in officials who represent us and our interests best, not comrades we owe a favour.

Previous ambassador Nomaindia Mfeketo may have advocated for African relief during the Covid-19 pandemic and criticised US travel restrictions, but she was also plagued with witchcraft and poisoning allegations.

Her appointment was rumoured to have only been to appease ANC factions that constantly threaten to collapse the party completely.

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Factionalism and the GNU

Factionalism remains and is still the main driver of government decisions, with the government of national unity (GNU) just in name and cosmetics.

Scratch past the surface of public-facing ministers and a handful of high-profile appointments and you will find that power is not shared but solely still in the hands of those who held it before May’s elections.

In an environment where politicians cannot even work together to form domestic policy, we must buck the trend internationally and have a clear, strong message through the current ambassador Ndumiso Ntshinga.

He has defended SA’s stance on the Gaza conflict but will need to be bolder and negotiate strongly for SA, not his own interest or that of the ANC.

Ntshinga has experience as an ambassador in Ethiopia, Kenya, China and the African Union. But he will have to navigate arguably his biggest task yet or Trump’s shadow will darken SA’s trade and relations for years to come.

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