If coalitions are sign of what’s to come, prepare for national instability, caretaker presidents

If the plague of current shaky and crumbling coalitions at local government level could hit South Africa after next year’s national polls, the country would be plunged into an unprecedented crisis – a matter out of bounds to be resolved by the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Cogta), could resolve, according to political experts.

Ruling out any role for Cogta in the event of a collapse in a future coalition government at national level,  University of Pretoria politics lecturer Roland Henwood, said Cogta would not a role to play.

Instability and uncertainty

“We may find periods of instability, uncertainty and caretaker governments due to any collapse in a coalition at national level,” cautioned Henwood.

Said Henwood: “If the pattern of self-interest and personal politics, playing out at local level continues, governance will be severely compromised and we may see early elections and possibly citizens getting directly involved with resultant instability.

“All indications at this stage support the likelihood of coalition governments.

“But much can change between now and when elections actually happen.”

READ MORE: ‘Shaky coalitions’ was why Joburg couldn’t pass budget earlier – analyst

‘Travesty’

Sanusha Naidu of the Institute for Global Dialogue, Sanusha Naidu described it as “a travesty that we end up in a situation where a motion of no confidence becomes devalued”.

“These coalition arrangements are now becoming a serious blight on governance and performance in many councils.

“This does not augur well because there is no focus on the real issues.

“So much vested interests make the situation more complicated and complex because it is not about measuring the performance of the individual.

“These motions are about getting power at all costs – petty vindictive politics,” argued Naidu.

She added: “The problem here is that our electoral model does not allow us to do direct voting.

“Once parties get an electoral mandate, they don’t go back to voters and inform them of what they are intending to do.

“We need a legislative agreement on coalitions to avert any disruptions and being destabilised.”

Power balance

Said political analyst Dr Melanie Verwoerd: “With Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane being other  case studies where coalition changes have taken place, we have seen municipalities where the power balance becomes close and unstable.

“This does not bode well for 2024 if we are going to go into a coalition government.

“But if you still have a very strong dominant majority party and you have one or two minority parties that join you, then coalitions can work.

“In our situation, our politicians are not mature enough to make service delivery the main aim of government.

“Focus on power shows immaturity and lack of responsiveness towards the constituents.”

Disagreements

Independent political expert Sandile Swana said: “The source of the disagreement between the DA and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) is that the PA is looking to take over the lucrative and cash-flush portfolios such as economic development and infrastructure.

“The DA is worried that if they were to give those portfolios to the PA, cash resources and opportunities for extortion would be rife.

“Undeclared incomes by virtue of heading a certain portfolio, seems to be what politicians are fighting for.

“With 2024 around the corner, politicians want to tap into these resources – not about big ideological battles.”

Swana called for “a convention where you allow other parties to rule and present an alternative solution, if you have been kicked out of power  – rather than working around the clock to oust each other”.

Said Swana: “Coalitions have now become a prominent feature of our politics going forward – bearing in mind that Mauritius and Seychelles are models of successful coalitions.

Monopolistic Politics

“South Africans have to adjust themselves to get out of monopolistic politics – into competitive and cooperative politics, respecting the wishes of voters.

“With research starting to show that our democracy is under-funded, meaning that the money political parties are getting is not enough to do the minimum or adequate work, political funding has to be revised

“If the law is not revised, this is set to open the door to unlawful and criminal fund-raising strategies.”

NOW READ: String of incidents point to shaky governance of Ekurhuleni’s coalition government