Earlier this year, BMW announced that the current Z4 roadster’s production will end in 2026, marking the close of an era for the iconic two-seater sports car. However, this decision also spells the end for its cousin, the fifth-generation Toyota Supra, which shares its platform with the Z4. Though respected in enthusiast circles, both models are being retired due to dwindling sales figures and market shifts away from sports cars in general.
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As manufacturers focus on profitability and meeting new demands, it’s becoming harder to justify the continued existence of low-volume, niche vehicles like the Z4 and Supra.
Why cull the Z4?
The decision to axe the Z4 comes largely as a response to poor sales. Despite BMW’s best efforts to keep the Z4 relevant with sharp styling, updated technology, and exhilarating performance, it simply hasn’t resonated with modern buyers the way it once did. The roadster segment, as a whole, has seen a decline, and the Z4 is now struggling to compete in a market that favours crossovers, larger SUVs, and, to an extent, electric vehicles.
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Additionally, the production costs of a low-volume, high-performance sports car with a luxury badge no longer make financial sense for BMW. The Z4 may hold nostalgic value for loyalists, but with the global sports car market shrinking, it’s difficult for BMW to justify keeping it alive. Especially as they shift resources toward electrification and larger, more profitable vehicle categories.
Toyota Supra’s uncertain future
The thing is, whatever fate befalls the BMW Z4 goes, the same is likely to happen to the Toyota Supra. Introduced in 2019 as a revival of Toyota’s legendary nameplate, the fifth-generation Supra was developed in partnership with BMW, and shares much of its architecture with the Z4. While the Supra has been well-received, particularly by fans who longed for the return of Toyota’s sports car, it has similarly faced the realities of limited appeal in today’s market.
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Like BMW, Toyota must grapple with the question of whether it makes financial sense to develop a new Supra independently.
In theory, Toyota could design and engineer an all-new Supra from the ground up, shedding the reliance on BMW. However, doing so would involve significant research and development (R&D) costs. For a car that has sold in relatively small numbers, especially in a small market like South Africa, the question becomes whether those costs can be justified. Sports cars, after all, are inherently low-volume, and their appeal is often limited to a passionate but small group of buyers. While the Supra has a strong fanbase, the sales figures simply do not compare to the vast market for SUVs and other categories.
The challenge of justifying R&D
Developing a bespoke sports car like the Supra would require a hefty investment in R&D, especially in an era when the industry is transitioning to alternative means of propulsion. Toyota could opt for a hybrid or fully electric Supra in the future, but that would mean competing in an even smaller niche within an already shrinking market. The costs associated with designing, testing, and bringing such a car to market would be enormous, and it’s unclear if Toyota would recoup that investment given current trends.
In the past, joint ventures like the partnership with BMW made such projects more feasible by spreading out the costs and reducing the financial risk for both parties. Without a partner like BMW, the full burden of R&D would fall on Toyota alone, making the idea of a future Supra increasingly fragile.
What happens next?
While the end of the BMW Z4 and Toyota Supra may come as a disappointment to driving purists and sports car enthusiasts, it is a reflection of a broader shift in the automotive world. Manufacturers must now allocate their resources where the demand is: SUVs, crossovers, and electric vehicles. As heart-wrenching as it may be for fans of the Z4 and Supra, these models are victims of a changing industry landscape.
That being said, it’s not the end of the road for Toyota’s performance ambitions. The brand still has the GR Yaris and GR Corolla, which show Toyota’s commitment to delivering fun-to-drive vehicles. But as for the Supra, unless Toyota can find a way to justify the R&D costs in the current market, its future remains uncertain. However, with talks of a next-generation Celica and MR2 on the horizon, there might just be hope for passionate drivers.
Sadly, for now, enthusiasts must savour what remains of these iconic models while they can. The BMW Z4 and Toyota Supra may be nearing the end of their production runs, but their legacy as beloved sports cars is certain to live on.
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