Despite South Africa being in the midst of the El Niño phenomenon, weather experts anticipate more heavy rains and unpredictable weather events across many regions.

The end of 2023 came with devastating rains that led to the loss of lives and destruction of homes across the country. In December, KwaZulu-Natal recorded at least 31 deaths due to heavy rains accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning.

Dr Alistair Clulow, an agrometeorology lecturer at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said the ongoing heavy rains are interesting because, at the moment, the country is expecting El Niño conditions, which in South Africa is meant to bring drier than normal conditions.

Clulow attributed these confusing weather patterns to climate change.

He explained that climate change means that there is more energy in the atmosphere. One of the symptoms is that the world’s average temperature is warming up.

“We are getting a lot of rain at the moment and more rain has been forecasted in the next couple of weeks.”

Clulow said even the Midmar Dam levels have risen to nearly full in over the past week.

“We are very fortunate to have received so much rain in a time when El Niño is taking place and we’re expecting a drier than normal season. But for farmers I think it’s harder for them to plan what to plant because you’re expecting a dry season, but there has recently been so much rain.

“Climate change certainly complicates the weather patterns that we have grown to understand and model.”

Clulow said 2023 was recorded to be the warmest year on record since their measurements started in about 1880.

“Climate change makes our understanding of things, such as El Niño, change because we base it on what we’ve seen in the past and now the climate is changing. So, is El Niño going to be different, is it going to accelerate it or is it going to reduce its impact? That’s the challenge.”

He said climate change does certainly complicate their predictions, specifically the long-term predictions.

“Our short-term forecasts, looking at the two or three upcoming days, are still pretty accurate, but our long term and seasonal forecasts are definitely complicated by the effects of climate change.”

Speaking on eNCA, Climate researcher and specialist, Nomhle Ngwenya, warned that South Africans are “definitely in for a year of unpredictable climate and extreme weather events”.

“I mean, if you looked at the past two years, 2022 to 2023, you can recap how disastrous the floods were and how almost no province in the country was left untouched by the [devastating] floods.

“So definitely we are expected to have more flooding this year.”

She said the country is also dealing with the duality of drought conditions.

“So, we are in the El Niño season, and you know, typically El Niño does bring in drier, warmer conditions, but that can also result in heavy rain like what we’ve been seeing in the related flood events,” added Ngwenya.