Stage 2 load-shedding predicted for winter

While Eskom anticipates load-shedding will likely be ‘maintained within stage 2’ this winter, it could go to stage 5 in ‘extreme cases’.

The power utility’s group chief executive Dan Marokane said during the State of the System and Winter Outlook media briefing, held at Megawatt Park today, that the stage 2 forecast is dependent on the unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) reaching 14 000MW in winter – down from the anticipated 15 000MW during the same period last year.

The UCLF is the rate at which generating units break down and do not perform optimally.

“The likely scenario from our assumptions is that load-shedding will be maintained within stage 2 at most.

“In the extreme case where unreliability increases, that component may go occasionally [to] stage 5,” said Marokane.

He added, however, that based on the fleet’s performance, load-shedding would likely stay within stage 2. “This is on the back of the decrease of the backline unreliability capacity reduction of 1 000MW which is what we use for our baseline assumptions.”

Although the reduction may look minimal, it is critical for managing the intensity of load-shedding.

“What is important as we go into this season’s forecast is that the base level for UCLF number is lower by a 1 000MW. When you understand the capacity that we have, it does not look [like] a big number, but when you understand the implications in terms of the levels of load-shedding, to be able to bank that capacity is important,” Marokane said.

He said the power utility has been working hard to lower the UCLF.

“When you look at the time period between last winter and now, you can see the reduction in unplanned losses – a 9% drop. It is mostly coming from the priority stations that were targeted as focal points.

“We also have the benefit of the early return of the four Kusile [Power Station] units that were out. The losses are averaging around 14.2GW. Our focus on targets in this financial year is to keep this below 14GW. This is where the first capacity release is coming from. The decline… is not as fast as we want [and] our focal point this year is to deal with six or seven key areas that cause unreliability… once we tackle them, we should be able to see ourselves comfortably at lower levels than this,” he said.

“Over the winter period, work continues and we are targeting to reduce unplanned losses by a further 1.7GW. This will be made up of 1.3GW from partial load loss reduction… demand-side management initiatives are also underway.

“Our ability to beat load-shedding this winter still depends on our collective collaboration and we’ll be launching the energy-saving campaign in May, asking all of us to play our part in this regard,” Marokane said. – SAnews.gov.za