SA Weather Service warns of severe weather conditions in coming months

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has encouraged the public to remain vigilant as the upcoming months of October and November could be affected by heatwaves, severe storms and the possibility of damaging winds.

Addressing a media briefing on Tuesday in Pretoria, SAWS Senior Manager: Disaster Risk Management, Rudzani Malala, said the highveld region, which encompasses the northern Free State, Gauteng and the eastern highveld of Mpumalanga, is well known to be associated with severe storms and the possibility of damaging winds.

“Moreover, given the expectation of a relatively hot summer over much of the country, communities should also be mindful of the likelihood of sustained spells of hot, dry weather, as well as the possibility of heatwaves. During such events, the aged, infirm, as well as infants and toddlers are particularly susceptible to dehydration.

“The SAWS therefore strongly recommends that everyone take care to stay hydrated and to support and assist the elderly and small children at such times. It is an unfortunate but well-documented reality that heatwaves often lead to numerous fatalities if no mitigative steps are taken,” Malala said.

He explained that South Africa experiences varying weather conditions in different seasons, due to its unique geographical location and setup.

“The two distinct oceans surrounding the country, i.e. the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, play a significant role in influencing the typical weather conditions we experience from season to season.

“The uniqueness of South Africa is such that at one end of the country, the public may experience extreme cold temperatures, whilst at the other end, communities may experience hot temperatures,” Malala said.

During the recent onset of this year’s 2024 spring, many South Africans experienced very hot conditions, with some parts experiencing heatwave conditions. However, the onset of a cold frontal system and a cut-off low system changed everything,” he said.

Snow events

Malala said the extremely cold conditions and snow event of September 19 to 22, 2024, that wreaked havoc on roads between the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape were accurately predicted by the Weather Service.

The SAWS also issued a pre-emptive media release on the event of the past weekend, which warned of a drop in temperature and light snow conditions.

At the time, the SAWS noted that the system was significantly different from the previous snow event, hence its impact was not as significant as the snow event of September 19 to 22, 2024.

“Snow in later winter and early spring is not unusual or rare at all. In fact, the more intense, extreme snow systems tend to affect southern Africa in very late winter, especially over the eastern provinces. We have even had snow in Johannesburg as late as October 2011.

“Snow is a phenomenon not restricted to winter months. On rare occasions (three times in the past century), snow has occurred on New Year’s Day in KwaZulu-Natal’s Drakensburg [region],” Malala said.

In the study of Stander et al. 2016, snow events over South Africa during the period of 1981 to 2011 were investigated.

“In this study, 60 significant snow events were identified, with strong seasonality in the frequency of occurrence of these snow events. These events occurred from March (just more than 5%), through to October (less than 5%).

“The months of June and July had the highest frequency of significant snow events (25% and about 35% respectively), whilst August accounts for just less than 20% and September just less than 15% of significant snow events,” SAWS Lead Scientist, Dr Christien Engelbrecht, said.

From the historical view of the frequency of occurrence of significant snowfall events, Engelbrecht said it can be seen that snowfall in the month of September is not rare.

“[The] 19 – 21 September 2008 heavy snowfall necessitated roads to be closed in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. Significant snow events have occurred in the month of October, although not frequently,” she said. – SAnews.gov.za