The outlook for South Africa’s housing market is looking increasingly optimistic with a number of positive indicators evident and early signs of sustainable growth in house prices and market activity already starting to emerge, says Dr Andrew Golding, chief executive of the Pam Golding Property group.
Says Dr Golding: “Repeated petrol price cuts, a seemingly imminent interest rate cut, improved confidence and the continued absence of loadshedding augur well for a continued, steady recovery in the housing market. We have seen both sellers and buyers, including investors, who had previously been sitting on the fence in the lead-up to the election, move forward and commit to property transactions, demonstrating that as long as there is stability, sentiment – which is a key driver of the residential property market – tends to improve.
“Encouragingly, headline consumer inflation decelerated to 4.6% in July from 5.1% in June, much lower than forecast. Overall price pressures have been easing for some time now, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates by at least 50bps and possibly even 75bps before year-end, with the first cut anticipated in September (2024).”
According to the Pam Golding Residential Property Index, national house price inflation continues to rebound, rising to +4.7% in July (2024) – a level last seen in February 2022, having risen steadily from a low of +2.4% in Q3 2023.
The Index reports that, contributing to the national recovery, house price inflation (HPI) in the two lower price bands below R1m and R2m, continued to accelerate in July 2024, rising to +8.7% and +3.4% respectively. Interestingly, while sectional title HPI is experiencing a robust recovery, rising to +3.6% in July, a data revision reveals that freehold HPI also strengthened last month, with growth of +4.1% marginally outstripping sectional title house price inflation.
Says Dr Golding: “While the Western Cape remains the standout performer, we have also already seen increasing activity and interest this year and during recent months in various other key metropolitan hubs and sought-after nodes around the country across all sectors, including but not limited to the high-end of the residential market.
“All major metro markets are showing signs of recovery, with Cape Town enjoying the strongest growth during the year to date (+2.9%), while national housing market activity has normalised and shown tentative signs of recovery in Q2 2024 as purchasers continue to buy and sell for all the usual reasons.
“Another positive is the strong growth in investment demand since the pandemic, but particularly over the past 18 months, to levels last seen in 2009. Demand for investment/buy-to-rent properties – which peaked at 12.9% of all ooba mortgage applications in February 2024, stood at 12% of all ooba applications last month (July 2024).
“At a regional level, the recovery is being partly driven by a turnaround in the Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal regional markets. In terms of house price inflation, the average purchase price in both Johannesburg and Tshwane has strengthened in recent months, suggesting that a return to positive territory – compared to year-earlier levels – is likely later this year. There does appear to be a positive turn in the Johannesburg residential property market generally, with increased buyer enquiries, and increased attendance at our exclusive previews and on show days. This includes increased interest at the top end of the market.
“Activity in the areas north of Durban is also rebounding and we have already seen an uptick in interest as the market anticipates interest rate cuts. La Lucia and uMhlanga remain sought-after areas, particularly the residential estates. We also anticipate more movement along the uMhlanga beachfront where investors can enjoy good returns, and are also expecting uMdloti to have a good run as this is an ideal market for Johannesburg business people seeking to own property rather than renting when they travel to KZN.
Uptick in luxury market
“The luxury end of the market has seen remarkable strength and significant reduction in stock levels, which is driving a shortage of stock and in turn placing pressure on pricing. Confidence has returned to the property market in this segment as it is driven by positive sentiment in respect of the improved financial conditions, local stock markets and stable government.”
Dr Golding says in the Cape, there are significant stock shortages in the luxury market and pressure is building in pricing due to limited stock. In the high end or R20m plus bracket of the market, Pam Golding Properties has concluded some notable sales on the Atlantic Seaboard including a house in Clifton which sold to a Gauteng-based businessman for R66m; a house in Camps Bay which sold for R33.8m to a Gauteng-based company; and an apartment in Mouille Point which sold for R27m to a local buyer from the Western Cape. Adds Dr Golding: “In sought-after Constantia Upper in Cape Town’s Southern Suburbs, we have concluded notable sales of homes for R54mi, R45.5m and R26m, among others.
“Meanwhile in the Boland and Overberg regions we have successfully concluded individual sales of homes for R20m plus – notably including Somerset West, while areas such as Paarl, Hermanus and Durbanville remain popular. Set to open in 2027 for domestic and international flights, the planned redevelopment and expansion of the Cape Winelands Airport into an international commercial airport are significant for this region, while road infrastructure upgrades and new links, including the extension of the R300 from the N1 to the urban edge north of Wellington Road in Durbanville, will form a ring road around the Cape metropole and accommodate increasing traffic volumes.”
Green shoots in first-time buyer market
“While the lower end of the market, including first-time home buyers, is particularly sensitive to the higher interest rates currently applicable, the increases in the cost of living, and buyer affordability, green shoots are appearing with confidence that the interest rates will soon start decreasing, and the banks remain supportive with a competitive average weighted concession at -0.56% and a record national loan-to-value ratio of 93.7% last month (July).
“According to ooba, national applications for first-time buyers rose to 46.6% in July 2024, rebounding from a subdued 44.3% in June, with demand likely to improve further later this year. This anticipated rebound in first-time buyers is likely to see stronger demand for homes around the R1m mark in urban nodes, which typically means sectional title properties.
“Furthermore, mortgage applications from self-employed individuals rose to a record 13.3% in Q2 2024, and cash (non-suspensive) sales soared to a record 60.2% in Q2 2024 according to ooba. The recent surge in local cash buyers has seen a sharp increase in demand for investment properties, particularly in the Western Cape.”
Outlook to 2025
Looking ahead, Dr Golding says on balance, there are growing expectations that the GDP growth rate in 2025 may well surprise on the upside – which will underpin the housing market.
“The lower price bands have been the most resilient during the slowdown, so it would seem likely that the higher price bands perform better going into the recovery – in part because improved confidence, lower interest rates and stronger growth will see less financial pressure on homeowners to downscale and may see people who were renting (possibly as the result of relocating) commit to purchasing a home.
“More efficient local governments – resulting from the GNU – could trigger recoveries in housing markets which have previously been hard hit by poor service delivery. Johannesburg’s housing market in particular comes to mind, which could possibly result in a slowdown in the current semigration trend to the Western Cape.
“We anticipate that activity will increase towards year-end as the anticipated rate cuts materialise, boosting market sentiment in general, which will underpin the emerging recovery in house price inflation.”
Issued by: Gaye de Villiers on behalf of Pam Golding Properties
