Our view: ANC has resisted the notion of two centres of power

It is on that occasion that president Jacob Zuma will be stepping down as leader of the organisation, but will only relinquish his position of the country in 2019 – which means we are still stuck with him, whether there is new leadership or not.

The country will be saved from his presence if a faction that is opposed to him, takes over. Then there’s likely to be a scenario where he will be recalled from government and allow the new president to take charge of both government and organisation as it has been purported in political circles.

The ANC itself has resisted the notion of two centres of power since it took over governance in 1994 – one being in parliament and the other being at Luthuli House, its headquarters. In the forthcoming circumstance of the coming conference, it seems likely that the NDZ17 faction led by Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma would support two centres of power notion, thus allowing Zuma to complete his term of office in 2019 – this is not likely to be the case with the CR17 faction led by Cyril Ramaphosa.

While the focus is on these two, there is a likelihood that the finality of the conference elections will be embedded on Mpumalanga’s support, because at the moment the province has not formerly pronounced its preferred camp.

It emerged from the National Policy Conference that provincial chairperson, DD Mabuza is the kingmaker in the forthcoming national conference because of the 736 delegates he will be leading there.

So far, from the two presidential hopefuls, only Dlamini-Zuma has offered Mabuza the deputy presidentship, while the Ramaphosa group has offered him nothing. That, at the moment, does not mean he is in support of the NDZ17 group, judging from him snubbing both their rallies.

From the look of things, as Mabuza has been preaching unity all along, unity is likely to play centre stage during the national elective conference.

It stands to be seen whether the new leadership will revive the ANC from its doldrums of dwindling support. That will be a real test of character for the ruling party before opening the playing field to the opposition and likely new parties to emerge.

New parties have had the unfortunate tendency of folding shortly or its leaders losing support because they’ve been established by angry former ANC leaders. Are we likely to see the emergence of a new splinter party after the national conference?

Only time will tell.