UPDATE: Tropical storm Idai tracking slowly Soutwestward

12:33 March 12

MBOMBELA – Storm Report South Africa complete update on tripical storm  Idai previously invest 18S as per observation and comparing different models.

She is now located approximately 276  North-North East of Europa Islands. She is moving at 11 kilometres per hour compared to yesterday’s four kilometres per hour. Centre pressure at 975hPa.

She experienced a slight eyewall collapse during the night due to colder waters and dry air present.

An animated satelite imagery reveals the continued presence of an approximately 15 NM wide eye. But… This eye has almost completely filled over the past few hours and then recent frames also show surrounding cloud top temperatures have cooled and dry air wraps into the system. Loads of rain present.

The initial position is placed with high confidence based on tbe poorly defined eye. An initial intensity of 100 knots is consistent with multi-agency DVORAK and current intensity estimates from T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS).

An overall favourable environment with warming seas ranging between (29-30 CELSIUS) and sea surface temperatures, radial outflow and low ((5-10 KT) vertical wind shear being partially offset by the dry air wrapping into the circulation competing steering influences from a near equatorial ridge to the North and a subtropical eddge to the South, are causing Idai to track slowly Soutwestward.

According to this tracking she will make landfall north of Beira, Mozambique prior to Tau.

Trajectory has slightly moved a little more Southwestward and she will again regain intensity in the next 12 hours.

High confidence in this tracking as models agree with NASA, Lareunion and JTWC.

Sources: Observing all global active models and trackers, NASA, NASATERRA, MeteoFrance, JTWC and Meteosat

March 11

MBOMBELA –  The latest warning states that an overall RED alert has been issued for Mozambique and red score by GDACS.  According to the Saffir-Simpson scale Cyclone Idai is now and extremely dangerous category 4 storm and has explosively intensified in the past 8 hours.

Invest 98S,  started out as a tropical depression in the Mozambican channel, intensified to a moderate tropical storm and IDAI-19 is now at such an intensity that she can have a high humanitarian impact. This is based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

This tropical storm is now called #Idai and has been named by Meteo France, and is intensifying off the western coast of Madagascar this morning. The storm could rapidly intensify as it turns south and then westwards over the Mozambique Channel, with a landfall likely in central Mozambique on Thursday or Friday as an intense cyclone.

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The nature of its intensification phase will likely be determined by its early track, with a higher chance of intensification if the storm continues to move at a significant speed without stalling.

The precursor to Idai has already killed 23 in Malawi, with 12 still missing and 29 injured.

Green alert for Mozambique has been issued and direct impact remains high.

We previously reported that Idai has maximum winds of 75 kilometers per hour and maximum gusts of 110 kilometers per hour. The winds have since intensified to 185 kilometers per hour and although she is moving  at 5 kilometers per hour much slower than last week this shouldn’t feel anyone and Storm Report SA warns ‘she is picking up more strength very quickly.’

At this stage if anything should be affecting the North Eastern parts of South-Africa, Storm Report SA will update promptly.  For now they are monitoring the situation every hour. The South African weather outlook has warned of isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible almost anywhere (except in Limpopo and the Northern Cape) with widespread rain and scattered thunderstorm expected over southern and central parts of the Free State, Lesotho and the North Eastern interior of the Eastern Cape.

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