The Toyota Fortuner emerged as the biggest winner of December by returning to the top 10 for the first time since September. Image: Toyota
Having started the year off on the back foot, South Africa’s new vehicle sales ended 2024 positively with a third consecutive increase in December.
Unsettled in November as the national’s best-seller by the Volkswagen Polo Vivo, the Toyota Hilux regained its customary first place in December with sales of 2 924 units versus the 1 946 recorded by the Kariega-built Vivo.
In another reversal from November, the Ford Ranger overtook the Toyota Corolla Cross to place third on 1 924 versus 1 526, with the Suzuki Swift keeping its fifth place with an offset of 1 376.
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Emerging as the biggest surprise though, the Toyota Fortuner recorded its first top 10 placing since September with sales of 1 343, followed by the Hyundai Grand i10 that kept its seventh place on 1 301.
Keeping station in eighth, the Toyota Starlet edged-out the Isuzu D-Max with sales of 1 259 versus 1 086 – the latter dropping three places from sixth in November to ninth in December.
Completing the top 10, the Great Wall Motors (GWM) Haval Jolion also kept its position from November, but displaced the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro as the country’s best-selling Chinese vehicle.
Describing 2024 as one of the most unpredictable post-pandemic, the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa)’s December figures showed an increase of 2.5% from 2023’s 40 262 to 41 273.
Unlike in November, individual segments were largely mixed as passenger vehicles increased 8.2%, while light commercials went the other way by shedding 10.3%.
Reflecting a similar picture, medium-duty commercial vehicles gained 7.6% with heavy-duty busses and trucks losing 11.8%.
In posting the figures, Naamsa recorded a year-on-year decline of three percent with a total of 515 712 vehicles sold throughout 2024 compared to 2023’s post-Covid-19 record of 531 775.
Taking the biggest hit, exports for 2024 ended 22.8% lower than 2023 on 308 380 versus 399 594.
December saw locally assembled vehicles bound for international market continuing on the downwards slope with a 4.3% decrease from 27 089 in 2023, to 25 391.
“Since the first half of 2024 was particularly challenging, new vehicle sales in 2024 fell compared to 2023, even though the last quarter of 2024 was promising,” Naamsa said in a statement.
“Consequently, the new vehicle market hasn’t been able to recover to the 2019 pre-pandemic level in four years and is likely to be delayed for another year.
“The industry anticipated a year of two halves with a taxing first half of the year and with brighter economic prospects and an upswing in new vehicle sales during the second half of the year, which unfortunately did not materialise”.
Commenting on the first post-pandemic decline in exports, the association said, “various factors impacted the plummeting in vehicle exports, including a slowdown in demand in the European Union, stricter emission rules, competition from cheaper electric vehicle imports from China in the region, as well as the timing effect of new model introductions in the domestic market by a major exporting OEMs”.
It added, “a significant two out of every three vehicles manufactured in South Africa are exported. As an export-oriented industry, the domestic automotive sector has embraced the trade opportunities via the specific trade arrangements that South Africa has concluded over the past three decades, opening certain markets in Europe, the US and Africa”.
Commenting on 2025, Naamsa said it expects the progress made in the latter half of 2024 to continue, but added that improvements could happen if, for example, more interest cuts are introduced.
“The domestic outlook for 2025 is expected to improve, driven by a revival in business and consumer sentiment stemming from improvements in the country’s key economic indicators,” it said.
“The South African Reserve Bank stated that risks to the country’s growth outlook are assessed to be balanced, but that growth could be higher from 2025 onwards, given ongoing reforms, especially in the network sectors, such as electricity and transport.
“With an improved GDP growth rate of around 1.5% projected for 2025, the new vehicle market would likely improve by single digits compared to the level of 2024”.
It, however, also cautioned about geopolitical uncertainties, most prominently the seesawing US economy ahead of and after the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20 January.
“Any escalating trade tensions are likely to impact US interest rates and drive the dollar higher. However, the expected ongoing easing of monetary policy in the South African automotive industry’s key export markets could see the vehicle export momentum turn positive again over the medium term”.
Out of the country’s 10 best-selling brands, December saw a fourth consecutive month of no changes to the top three, with Toyota finishing 2024 on top with 11 422, followed by Volkswagen on 4 832 and Suzuki on 4 514.
In a swap for fourth and fifth though, Hyundai finished ahead of Ford with 2 826 versus 2 607, while Chery placed sixth on 1 867 in front of its arch Chinese rival, GWM, on 1 686.
Taking eighth on 1 496, Kia became the third brand after the People’s Republic pair to jump Isuzu, whose 1 364 vehicle sold, saw it dropped to ninth ahead of a steady-staying Renault on 1 105.
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