Load shedding expected to continue until March
JOBURG - No load shedding is expected today, but the country should brace itself for over 30 days of potential outages from mid-December until early next year.
36 days of likely load shedding are expected from now until the end of March, Eskom chief executive Tshediso Matona said.
Matona apologised for load shedding, but conceded that the forced outages will continue in the coming months.
“Eskom apologises to the nation for the inconvenience of the past few weeks due to load shedding.” said Matona.
However, he added that Eskom had communicated for an extended period to South Africa that the power system is extremely constrained and vulnerable.
“The week ahead will be very tight, with a medium risk of load shedding, and a high risk on Thursday and Friday [11 and 12 December],” Matona said.
The prognosis for load shedding will be low to medium after 15 December until mid-January next year as electricity demand decreases with industries slowing or closing down for the festive season, Matona said.
However, this is provided that no additional risks impact the system.
Eskom’s system calendar outlook, for December and the next three months, predicts a total of 36 days of probable load shedding, 59 days with a medium risk of load shedding and 18 days which are low-risk.
Christmas Eve, 24 December, has been forecast to have a medium risk of load shedding while Christmas Day, Day of Goodwill, New Years Eve and New Years Day, 25, 26 and 31 December and 1 January, are expected to face a low risk of load shedding.
Eskom warned that the power system will remain severely constrained and will only begin to ease once at least two units at Medupi and one unit at Kusile are running.
“With the reserve margins being low, we do not have enough capacity to meet demand, necessitating a need for planned rotational load shedding,” Matona said.
Eskom’s plant reliability has declined as a result of plant availability negatively decreasing from 85 percent to 75 percent over the last five years.
64 percent of Eskom’s current installed base load capacity plants are past their midlife, requiring longer outages and extended restoration time.
Meanwhile, Eskom urged the public to familiarise themselves with load shedding schedules in all three stages and plan ahead as Eskom has had to move from one stage to the next, at short notice.
According to Eskom, the Johannesburg area (City Power in conjunction with the Johannesburg Eskom network) sheds for four hours at a time unlike other municipalities.
This is the result of extensive engagement with local commerce and other customer groups, which indicated that despite the longer duration, the lower frequency of four hours was preferred to a two-hour duration implemented more frequently.
