Disruptive rain expected for Lowveld, despite Cyclone Eloise changing track

Damaging winds, disruptive rain and widespread havoc. These were some of the traits by which Lowvelders remember January 1984, when Cyclone Domoina hit the area.

Now, history threatens to repeat itself as another cyclone is expected to make landfall on Saturday, 36 years later, almost to the day. The current tropical system, named Eloise, has developed in the Indian Ocean, and has by nature of the unpredictability of such occurrences caused much concern and uncertainty.

The main cause for distress among Lowvelders is whether the area will be affected as it had been in 1984.

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Up until yesterday, Eloise was expected to have moved south-westwards and enter the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday. But, according to the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the path has changed to further north. As Eloise makes landfall in the Beira area on Saturday, storm surges, excessive rain and extremely destructive winds are expected along the Mozambican coastline and adjacent interior.

With Eloise now expected to track more north, the Lowveld is not expected to be in its direct path. While overland, weakening is expected to take place.

“The models are still in agreement with large amounts of rain on Sunday and Monday, with the main areas of concern being over the Lowveld as well as along the escarpment of Limpopo and Mpumalanga. There is also a possibility of rain on Tuesday, even though amounts aren’t expected to be very high. The ground would already be saturated from the rainfall on Sunday and Monday,” SAWS announced on Wednesday.

Accompanying this tropical storm are strong winds. Impacts that are being considered possible at this stage include:
• Widespread damage to settlements (formal and informal)
• Closure of main bridges and roads, significant disruption to transport as well as large communities not being accessible.
Impacts as a result of the strong winds:
• Trees falling over
• Collapsing of houses – particularly in the rural areas
• Damage to some structures and buildings
• Disruption to power and other services. According to the Mpumalanga disaster management centre, all resources are on high alert from January 23 to 27. SAWS said official warnings will be issued tomorrow as well as a full update.

Communities are advised to take the following into account:
A quick rise in water levels of streams (even empty ones) might take place should heavy rains occur; therefore, you are urged to be careful when crossing these on foot or in a vehicle. Drivers are advised to slow down and use their headlights in misty and rainy conditions.

The provincial Disaster Management Centre provided the following tips should localised flooding occur:
• Do not attempt to drive through flooded areas‚ even if the water looks shallow enough to cross
• Leave your vehicle if it stalls and immediately move to higher ground
• Never drive into water that covers the road. You do not know how deep it is or whether the road underneath has been washed away
• Be on special alert near dips in the highway and near low-lying bridges during heavy rains • Exercise caution‚ especially at night when visibility is poor
• Pedestrians must avoid areas where water flows rapidly
• Keep children from playing in drainage ditches, stormwater drains or areas where water is easily accumulated.