SAWS provides updates as Tropical Cyclone Batsirai draws near Madagascar
The cyclone is expected to make its landfall on the coastline of Madagascar sometime on Saturday February 5.
The movements of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai have been described by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) as extremely erratic, as it continues its path slowly south-westwards toward the eastern coastline of Madagascar.
The cyclone’s landfall is predicted to hit on Saturday February 5. The service said it is unable to predict whether the cyclone will directly or indirectly affect South Africa at this stage, but it is monitoring the movements very closely.
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Batsirai is a highly significant tropical storm system, according to the SAWS, and is currently associated with winds of about 140 kilometres an hour.
“It seems highly likely that the eastern coastline of Madagascar (particularly the central part of the coast) will bear the brunt of strong, damaging winds and torrential rainfall.
“Very rough seas, combined with storm surges, tend to be more extreme on the southern (poleward) side of tropical storms in this region of the world. Moreover, the steep, rugged topography of the mountains extending along the eastern coastline of Madagascar will no doubt exacerbate the risk of rainfall as well as flash floods and mudslides,” the SAWS said.
However, the service said its meteorologists are confident that Batsirai will weaken temporarily once it makes landfall over Madagascar.
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“It is also probable that Batsirai will reinvigorate as it enters the ocean environment of the Mozambican Channel early next week.”
The statement added that the latest forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts provides a good idea of Batsirai’s most likely path and movement these coming five days.
“Suffice it to say that, at least in the days ahead, there is no immediate weather-related threat for South Africa in relation to this tropical cyclone. Be assured that SAWS will continue to closely monitor developments in this regard and will issue updates.”
