February 14, 2017 – PM
Dineo is currently classified as a severe tropical storm, positioned in the Mozambique Channel.
The latest forecast guidance from SAWS suggests that it is likely to intensify to Intense Tropical Cyclone status as early as tomorrow evening, shortly before making landfall (reaching the coastline) near Inhambane, southern Mozambique in the early hours of Thursday.
What does it mean for communities in Mozambique?
An obvious concern for communities over southern Mozambique will be torrential rain, resulting in widespread flooding. Furthermore, along the southern coastline of Mozambique, strong and damaging winds are expected as well as sea conditions will become very rough.
Assuming landfall is near Inhambane, the coastline north of Xai-Xai will be particularly vulnerable to storm surge.
What does it mean for South Africa?
In South Africa, heavy rainfall may occur in places across the Lowveld and adjacent escarpment regions on the evening of Thursday. The greatest impact with respect to South African provinces is suggested to be on Friday, when heavy rain can be expected over the entire eastern half of Limpopo (including the Kruger National Park), where 100 to 200 millimetres of rain could occur per day.
By early Friday morning, the core or vortex of Dineo should begin dissipating in the region of Musina and Beit Bridge (see image below) in the northern part of Limpopo province.
February 14, 2017 – AM
The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) La Reunion has updated the expected evolution of Tropical Storm Dineo which is now expected to reach Tropical Cyclone stage (winds of up to 118-165km/h) early on Wednesday.
Further intensification is expected and the storm will reach the Intense Tropical Cyclone (winds of up to 166-212 km/h) around midday (Wednesday), before making landfall at midnight near Inhambane in southern Mozambique. South Africa will only start to experience the rain from this tropical system on Thursday over the Lowveld, spreading westwards by Friday.
All over South Africa today, scattered thundershowers are expected to develop, mainly this afternoon over the central, south-eastern and eastern parts with heavier showers possible over the south-eastern parts of Mpumalanga and northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal.
Moderate tropical storm Dineo will be closely monitored and updates will be sent as soon as they are available.
February 13, 2017
Over the past few days, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has been monitoring the development of a tropical weather system which could affect parts of the Ehlanzeni district with heavy rain and localised flooding.
This weather system has the potential to result in severe weather impacts over the north-eastern parts of the country later this week.
Current weather conditions in the Mozambique Channel continue to be hot and humid, with light winds in the atmosphere, whilst sea-surface temperatures exceed 30°C – all favourable ingredients for the growth and intensification of tropical lows.
What is expected to happen
At the current time, the tropical low (see the picture above) has been classified as a tropical disturbance. However, within the next 24 hours, the system is expected to intensify and become a moderate tropical storm (associated with winds of 63-88 kilometres per hour).
Assuming the current system deepens to at least the moderate tropical storm stage, the name to be assigned to the system will be “Dineo”. It will be recalled that “Carlos” (the third such system this season) affected the oceanic region east of Madagascar last week, but has since weakened and moved far off, into the southern ocean regions.
Also read: Mpumalanga flood alert: Courageous firefighter swept away during flood
It is expected that “Dineo” will follow a predominantly south-westerly track over the next few days, whilst intensifying further, to reach the severe tropical storm (winds of 89-117 km/h) on the morning of February 15, when it is projected to be just seawards of Massinga and Inhambane on the coastline of southern Mozambique.
Thereafter, during the period of Wednesday to Friday, it is expected to move into the inland region of southern Mozambique, bringing heavy tropical rain to the sub-region.
During Thursday and Friday, the north-eastern parts of South Africa, including parts of the Kruger National Park, may experience heavy rain as well as localised flooding, although not likely to be as severe as the scenario expected for southern Mozambique.
How will it affect the Lowveld
Whilst there is much uncertainty regarding the location and timing of the storm’s impact within South Africa, the most likely areas to be affected include the Ehlanzeni district (including the Kruger National Park) in Mpumalanga as well as Mopani and Vhembe districts in Limpopo, before spreading to other districts in Limpopo.
Notwithstanding that this tropical system is likely to introduce a range of severe weather to parts of southern Africa later in the week, including heavy rainfall, flooding and possibly wind damage along parts of the southern Mozambican coastline, it is important to bear in mind that current projections do not expect the system to intensify to the tropical cyclone stage before it makes landfall.
Also watch: Video: Skukuza camp site flooded in Kruger National Park
As such, a tropical cyclone would be associated with extremely powerful, destructive winds, as well as marked storm surge along the coast. We therefore hope that current projections remain on track, in terms of further intensification of the system.
It is also useful to keep in mind that all land-falling tropical systems inevitably begin a rapid process of weakening and decay once they are overland and deprived of the energy provided by warm ocean water.
It can therefore be anticipated that, whilst much rainfall can be expected for southern Mozambique as well as parts of South Africa later in the week, the system itself will, in all probability, dissipate within 36 to 48 hours of moving inland.
Where to find out more
SAWS will continue to monitor any further developments relating to this weather system and will issue subsequent updates as required.
Furthermore, the public is urged to regularly follow weather forecasts on television and radio. Updated information can also be found at www.weathersa.co.za as well as via the SAWS Twitter account @SAWeatherServic.
*This press release was provided by the South African Weather Service.
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