Cyclone Eloise heads to Mozambique – Should Lowvelders be concerned?

The current tropical system named Eloise has developed in the Indian Ocean, and has by nature of the unpredictability of such systems, caused much concern and uncertainty. The main concern among Lowvelders is whether or not they will be affected.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) strongly emphasised in a recent statement that, as with any and every tropical system worldwide, much uncertainty surrounds the prediction of Eloise’s future development and movement. “Tropical systems are notoriously fickle and unpredictable, often exhibiting very erratic movement.”

Here are 10 things you need to know about Eloise, according to SAWS:

• Currently, Eloise is classified to be a moderate tropical storm. It is set to intensify in the coming days. It is moving west-south-westerly at a speed of 26 kilometres per hour.
• The most likely track Eloise will follow should take it close to the coast of Madagascar on Tuesday as it intensifies further to a severe tropical storm, with sustained winds likely to exceed 100 kilometres per hour.
• It is likely to cause considerable wind-related damage, as well as delivering torrential rain with flooding and wash-aways on the island country.
• Given the steep geographic terrain of eastern Madagascar, flooding and wash-aways are also a distinct possibility.
• Along the coast will also be a risk of a storm surge, especially on the southernmost leading quadrant of the storm system.
• Eloise will weaken significantly as it moves across the landmass of northern Madagascar, where it will be exposed to increased friction and is likely to be deprived of the latent heat energy.

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When will it hit Mozambique and will it affect South Africa?

• Later in Eloise’s lifecycle, the cyclone will without doubt begin to redevelop as it drifts back into the open ocean region of the Mozambique Channel this Friday. It will be at this stage that Eloise will require close monitoring, as it has the potential to make landfall along the southern Mozambican coastline between Beira and Vilanculos during the coming weekend.
• It could gradually begin to move on a more southerly parabolic path (often termed a polewards-accelerating trajectory), which could potentially take it further down the Mozambican coastline and, possibly, into the north-eastern Lowveld region of South Africa. Currently, the speculative possibility of Eloise directly affecting South Africa is only one of a multitude of possible outcomes, given the long lead-time, and should be considered to be a “low probability/high uncertainty” worst-case scenario.
• SAWS strongly emphasises that, as with any tropical system worldwide, uncertainty surrounds predictions of future developments and movement. Tropical systems are notoriously fickle and unpredictable, often exhibiting very erratic movement. Modern satellite remote sensing and advanced ensemble numeric modelling techniques do, however, mitigate much of this uncertainty, at least in the short term.
• Notwithstanding the above, the general public may rest assured that SAWS will continue to be vigilant and to closely monitor Eloise’s future
evolution. Further timely updates will be issued as and when necessary.