It is raining on Paul Kruger’s birthday!
If it rains before Oom Paul’s birthday we are in for a very dry summer, and if it rains on or after his birthday we will have a wet summer.
Every year farmers patiently wait for 10 October, Heroes Day. This is not only the day that falls on Paul Kruger’s birthday but also the day that has entertained the folklore of predicting the upcoming rain season.
According to the South African Weather Service, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely remain in a neutral state for the coming seasons.
ENSO forecasts are currently extremely uncertain, with a wide variety of outcomes, including a weak
El Niño, predicted by different forecasting centres. . Usually when this is the case, seasonal forecasts for the summer rainfall areas tend to be very uncertain as well.
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The late spring (Oct-Nov-Dec) period indicates confident forecasts that below-normal rainfall is more likely over the central to south-eastern parts of the country.
Early-summer (NovDec-Jan), however, indications are that above-normal rainfall is more likely for the central and eastern parts, which are predicted to continue into mid-summer (Dec-Jan-Feb).
The threshold forecasts mainly indicate a higher number of rainfall days during late-spring through to midsummer.
It is important to note the heightened likelihood from international forecasts (mainly from global dynamical models) that seem to be very confident about typical El Niño rainfall conditions over Southern Africa during the entire summer period.
This means there are opposite forecasts for most of the summer period, and this increases the uncertainty for the coming summer season.
With regards to temperatures, mostly higher than normal temperatures are expected from early-spring through to mid-summer for the northern most parts of the country.
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Paul Kruger was born on October 10 1825. He wasn’t a well-educated man and only had three months formal education. He became commandant-general of the then South African Republic, later known as Transvaal.
He became Vice-President in 1874. In 1882, the 57-year-old Paul Kruger was elected president of Transvaal. He died on 14 July 1904.
Kruger Day was first celebrated in 1882, while Oom Paul was still alive.
