Severe tropical storm Dineo to make landfall tonight
"There is a good chance that it will reach Tropical Cyclone status within the next 6 to 12 hours," The SA Weather Service has announced.
According to the SA Weather Service, “Dineo” is really living up to the notoriously fickle and unpredictable nature of such tropical systems.
Overnight, tropical storm Dineo’s track began shifting to adopt a more westerly trajectory, which will take the system on to the coast early this evening, near Massinga, Mozambique.
Dineo is also quite likely to undergo a final surge of intensification, just before arriving over land and there is a good chance that it will reach Tropical Cyclone status within the next 6 to 12 hours.
To read all previous Lowvelder updates about Dineo, click here.
https://www.citizen.co.za/lowvelder/374008/warning-tropical-weather-system-expected-affect-lowveld/
Given that Dineo is likely to reach Tropical Cyclone intensity today, the projected maximum strength of surface winds associated with the system will be 70 knots, or about 130km/h.
Whilst this wind strength is somewhat weaker than the earlier estimate of 160 to 170km/h, this is still a formidable storm system which has the potential to cause much damage to coastal and inland infrastructure.
An obvious concern for communities in southern Mozambique will be heavy or torrential rain resulting in widespread flooding. Sea conditions along the southern Mozambican coast are forecast to be very rough, of the order of 6 to 8 metres, while the additional threat of marine storm surge will be particularly pronounced on the forward flank (south-western) side of the system (due to the combined effect of storm motion as well as winds swirling clockwise around the system).
Assuming landfall near Massinga and Inhambane, the coastline north of Xai-Xai will be particularly vulnerable to storm surge.
Important to remember
As mentioned in previous media releases regarding Dineo, it is important to keep in mind that all such tropical systems (such as tropical storms and tropical cyclones), which originate over open water, are critically dependent on the open ocean as a source of latent heat energy in order to sustain their growth and intensification.
The moment such systems move overland (as is the case with Dineo later today), they invariably undergo rapid structural weakening and decay.
What it means for SA
The SA Weather Service said regarding direct, weather-related impacts for South Africa, heavy rainfall may occur in places over the northern Lowveld and adjacent escarpment regions of Limpopo on the evening of February 16.
The greatest impact is suggested to be overnight on Thursday and into the morning hours of Friday, when heavy rain can be expected over the entire eastern half of Limpopo (including the Kruger National Park), where 100 to 200 millimetres of rain could occur per day.
Read about the possible effects on the Kruger National Park: Kruger disaster management team on high alert because of cyclone
*Most of the information in this article was supplied by the South African Weather Service.
