SA’s Covid-19 infections slowing, but don’t celebrate yet

South Africa’s Covid-19 reproduction rate has declined, meaning each person infected with the virus is likely to transmit it to fewer people, but this doesn’t mean we can throw caution to the wind. Instead, it is time for government to come up with a sophisticated plan of relaxing lockdown restrictions.

According to research by Reproduction Live, which assesses Covid-19 infection rates across the world, South Africa has seen a decline in numbers comparable to that of the first wave, which their numbers show was at a 0.7 in July 2020. The National Institute for Communicable Diseases, however, recorded a reproductive rate of 1.1 as of 26 July 2020.

The dip in our current figure to 0.66 is good news, as the aim has been to reduce the reproduction rate to below 1 to decrease infection, said head of biometric sciences department at Cape Peninsula University Professor Glenda Davison.

“The reproduction rate is an indication of how many people one infected person on average infects. So, for example, if the reproduction rate was 2, it means that each Covid-19 infected patient will on average transmit the virus to two others. This is not good as the virus will increase at a rapid rate. The aim is to reduce this to below 1 as that means that infection will decrease. A reproduction rate of 0.66 is therefore good news,” she said.

While Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal have been shown to have the highest number of infectious people, it is Free State and Mpumalanga which have the highest reproductive rate.

The data, however, was based on official numbers as the exact number of infected people is not really known, said epidemiologist Professor Jo Barnes.

“It also depends on how well the health service in a province functions and if that data represents most of the cases as a lot of [people] didn’t even seek help. It is a difficult situation,” Barnes said.

Don’t relax too soon

Despite the low reproduction rate, the recently discovered new variant is however more infectious and transmissible than before, Davison explained.

“Before the lockdown, the curve was increasing at a very fast rate and scientists estimated that it was around 50% more transmissible. If we go back to having large gatherings and totally not taking the preventative precautions, we could see a third wave. I believe that the only way we are going to overcome this virus is to introduce the vaccines as soon as possible,” said Davison.

South Africa is seeing a slowing decrease in infections though, with numbers standing at 8 147 new cases as of Monday afternoon, as compared to 18 555 new cases ten days prior.

This was due to restrictions which imposed a curfew while prohibiting social gatherings, which largely contributed to transmissions, said public health expert Professor Alex van den Heever.

While such measures seem to be working, government should review which regulations had an effect in lowering transmission before deciding on relaxing all lockdown rules.

“The fact that we have a simultaneous downward trend in all nine provinces suggests that this set of restrictions which targeted gatherings worked. What we need to do is keep the downward trend and take away the economic effects,” said Van den Heever.

“In my view, [government] should test effects of the removal of the alcohol ban while keeping the curfew in place and allowing for normal consumption of alcohol at restaurants, while having specific rules around shebeens and pubs. It means targeting the measures on what works in relation to an airborne epidemic.”

To further reduce the reproductive rate, government should not use a blanket approach and should instead target hotspot provinces, said Barnes.

“We need more sophisticated measures and not blanket bans of things that are not necessarily directly connected to the pandemic. If we get that right, [reproductive rate] will go down and stay down to a healthy figure. It’s no use if it is up and down like a see-saw because then you relax, and then another wave comes in,” she said.

rorisangk@citizen.co.za

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