Is a national coalition government in SA’s future?
With coalitions governing many municipalities across South Africa, the possibility has been raised of coalition governments at national and provincial level after the 2024 national election.
Will South Africa be run by coalition governments after the national and provincial elections in 2024? This is the question many people are asking after the ANC failed to secure 50% of votes in November’s local government elections.
Some political analysts say we may well have a national coalition government after the next general election.
The leader of the DA, John Steenhuisen, said last week that the election of DA mayors in Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg symbolised the crossing of a psychological threshold; South Africa knows that the ANC can be beaten, he said.
Independent election analyst Wayne Sussman believes that a migration towards provincial and national coalition politics will not be a simple process, however.
On a local level, it is easier for South African parties to work together as the common goal is better service delivery, he says.
“On a national level, however, you must deal with ideological differences like land issues, economic policy, and social issues. On this level, it will be difficult for the DA and the EFF to work together.”
Sussman says the dynamics of South Africa’s provinces also need to be considered; Gauteng as an economic powerhouse, the Western Cape as a tourist destination, and even tribal differences.
Whatever South Africa’s political future holds, Sussman says big changes should be expected in the 2024 and 2029 general elections.
“The one thing you should not do, though, is to write off the ANC,” says Sussman, adding that the party’s elective conference in 2022 should be keenly watched.
WATCH: Independent political analyst Wayne Sussman talks to journalist Izak du Plessis about the future of South African politics.
