Final insights into voter preferences revealed by the Institute of Race Relations
JOBURG –The institute released its May findings about potential outcomes for the 8 May elections following a week of polling.
Laura Pisanello
The Institute of Race Relations has released final polling insights into the upcoming national election on 8 May.
The latest poll is the fifth conducted by the institute leading up to the elections. Previous polls took place in September and December last year and in February and April this year. The final May poll took place from 27 April to 4 May and offered insights into the potential outcome both nationally and provincially.
Gareth van Onselen, the head of politics and governance for the institute, highlighted that while it is impossible to predict the outcome of the election the polling highlights voter sentiments during the last week of the elections period.
The poll was conducted in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape as these have tended to be the most hotly contested provinces in the country. The poll was conducted on the basis of a 70 per cent turnout at the polling stations. This is the most realistic turnout probability based on the 74.6 per cent turnout during the previous national elections.
National:
The African National Congress (ANC) could get less than 55 per cent, depending on the last four days leading up voting day as well as voter turnout and a3 per cent margin of error. Van Onselen said, “This is the most fluid national election, in particular with regard to the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), who have traded support in one way or another among around 6 to 8 per cent of black voters since September.”
In terms of demographics, the polling found that support for the Democratic Alliance (DA) is up marginally among black voters while down among white voters since the 2014 elections. The ANC is down significantly among coloured voters since 2014. Support for the EFF is up significantly since 2014 and might provide an interesting dynamic between them and the ANC. The margin of error is about 3 per cent.
Gauteng:
Based on the latest polling indicators, Gauteng is set to be hung barring a last-minute surge in support for the ANC. Throughout the week of polling, support for the ANC among black voters was reasonably steady at about 57 per cent, however, this had dropped to 51 per cent on the last day of the polling. In contrast, support for the EFF among black voters has grown from 17 per cent to 21 per cent. The DA still receives the majority of its support from white voters in the province, however, it fares better among black voters in the province than it does nationally. The margin of error ranged from 5.6 per cent to 6.5 per cent.
Western Cape:
Polling indicators from the last week leading up to the elections indicated that the DA still enjoys majority support. Support for the ANC declined dramatically from the previous month’s polls going from 28 per cent to 21 per cent in the latest polling. Polling indicated that the DA managed to win over many coloured voters over the past month. May’s polling saw 75 per cent of coloured voters indicating they would vote for the DA, up 18 per cent. The EFF enjoys marginal support in the Western Cape, ranging from 4.7 per cent of votes to 10 per cent. The margin of error ranged from 6 per cent to 6.8 per cent.
KwaZulu-Natal:
The ANC still enjoys the majority of the support in KwaZulu-Natal, however, during the week of polling support for the party significantly declined before a slight growth in support on the final day. Over the same period, support for the DA and the EFF grew steadily while the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) remained relatively stable with about 10 per cent of votes. The margin hovered at about 6 per cent. The DA managed to grow significantly among white and Indian voters while the EFF managed to gain some traction among black and coloured voters.
Details: Institute of Race Relations info@irr.org.za
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