Stage 16 could mean ‘more than a day’ in the dark

South Africans will be exposed to a full day of load shedding “or more” if Eskom announces Stage 16 load shedding – but doing so will prevent a total blackout, after which it could take as long as four weeks to restore power supply in the country.

Vally Padayachee, chair of the management committee of the National Rationalised Specifications (NRS) Association of South Africa, which is finalising a review of the current load shedding rules, says however that providing for Stage 16 in the proposed new rules does not mean it will become a reality.

It also does not mean the country is getting closer to total grid collapse.
It is merely a proactive response to the current state of Eskom’s generation fleet.

ALSO READ: MPs rebuke Eskom board for inaction after reports of massive graft

The pressures are coming …

During a presentation at the National Press Club in Pretoria on Tuesday Padayachee acknowledged that load shedding has been less intense recently but added that this probably won’t last.

He said late in July or early August temperatures usually drop and demand increases, which may place additional pressure on the country’s electricity system.

Padayachee further warned that an El Niño state in the coming summer may lead to hot, dry conditions and increased use of cooling systems that may add to pressure on the grid.

He believes it will take at least two years to solve the current supply deficit, and the answer lies in demand management.

ALSO READ: De Ruyter’s go-to police investigator shuns Scopa over Eskom allegations

Collaborative effort behind the rules

The NRS Association is a voluntary organisation where representatives of municipal electricity utilities, the South African Bureau of Standards (SABS), energy regulator Nersa and Eskom collaborate to develop industry specifications.

In 2010 it developed the NRS 048-9 standard for protecting the grid through load shedding.

This was updated in 2017 when the four load shedding stages it provided for were increased to eight.

The proposed third version will provide for 16.

The document gets legal status and becomes enforceable when Nersa adopts it and incorporates it in the licence conditions applicable to its licensees, including Eskom and municipal distributors.

Nersa is expected to embark on a public consultation process before adopting the protocol.

ALSO READ: Hawks not investigating any politician over Eskom corruption

Constinency, flexibility and ‘finding load’ to shed

Padayachee said NRS 048-9 provides for the implementation of a response to system emergencies that is nationally consistent across different utilities and electricity users, but the system operator can still take any actions deemed necessary to protect the system.

He said the frequent use of Stage 6 load shedding prompted the Eskom system operator to request the association to extend the protocol to provide for the management of the system beyond the current eight stages.

In the first edition of the document the four stages provided for required only about 25% of the load to be shed and it was relatively easy to “find” the load to shed.

In the second edition about half the load was shed at Stage 8 and it became much harder to “find” such load under emergency conditions.

ALSO READ: Treasury given 60 days to figure out how it will clear Eskom’s R254bn debt

Full load – switch everything off

The proposed latest version will provide for a methodology to reduce the entire load – in other words, switch off everything – in a structured way, thereby providing certainty about how an extreme emergency will be dealt with.

If adopted in its current form, it will allow the system operator to impose load shedding at anything from one geographic block at a time at Stage 1 to switching all blocks off simultaneously.

It also gives the system operator the freedom to instruct specific control centres to deviate from the applicable load shedding schedule.

Padayachee emphasised that load shedding must in terms of legislation be exercised in an equitable fashion, spreading the pain equally among users.

ALSO READ: Godongwana rejects Eskom’s financial reporting exemption application

Exceptions

The only exceptions are for so-called essential loads in terms of safety, environmental impact and economic considerations and loads critical “for maintaining the operational integrity of the power system, or for avoiding a cascading impact on public infrastructure in the event of a system emergency”.

The document instructs utilities to keep lists of users exempted from load shedding.

Nersa’s role is to instruct its licensees to implement the rules; do audits when necessary to ensure such implementations; and to provide a reporting system to ensure implementation.

It will also consider applications for exemption and publish a list of sites exempted from load shedding.

Padayachee said the NRS Association’s proposal will be finalised and presented to Nersa within days. He expressed the hope that Nersa will prioritise it.

The association has not yet decided whether it will make its proposal public or wait for Nersa to consider and publish the document in its current or an amended form for public comment.

This article originally appeared on Moneyweb and was republished with permission.
Read the original article here.