How much longer can Zuma survive?

Wednesday November 2 may turn out to be the most significant day of Jacob Zuma’s presidency. It was the day on which civil society finally achieved a cohesive voice in its protest against his leadership (or lack thereof) in the form of the Save South Africa campaign, and also one on which the High Court in Pretoria ordered that the Public Protector had to release its report into state capture.

This was a report that, until that morning, President Zuma had been attempting to suppress. However, having realised that the application to stop its release stood no realistic chance of succeeding, the president withdrew it.

While the report makes no definitive findings against President Zuma, it certainly paints him in an extremely unfavourable light. The investigation did not reveal much that hasn’t already been aired in the media, but the story is beginning to solidify.

For instance, cell phone records put Duduzane Zuma and Fana Hlongwane in Saxonwold on the day and at the time that Mcebesi Jonas claims he was offered the position of Minister of Finance by Ajay Gupta in their presence. These and other records, the public protector found, appear to confirm Jonas’ version of events.

The report also notes that it is “worrying” that the Guptas appear to have known about changes to the cabinet before they were made. If the brothers did indeed know about intended appointments, the public protector found, this would be in violation of the Executive Ethics Code, which prohibits members of the cabinet from sharing “information received in confidence in the course of their duties”.

Furthermore, the report questions why no efforts were made by the president or the cabinet to verify the claims made by Jonas or Vyjie Mentor that they were offered cabinet posts by the Guptas, or the allegations regarding the relationship between Brian Molefe and the Gupta family. Given that all these allegations were backed by evidence, the executive should have taken steps to determine their veracity.

This raises obvious questions. When such serious allegations are raised in public, why would the president take no steps to determine whether or not they were true? After all, they called his own credibility and fitness for office into question.

The report also goes into some detail about President Zuma’s decision not to answer questions during the investigation. At the very least, this paints a picture of a man who refuses to be accountable to the public of the country he is meant to be serving.

When Sipho Pityana, convenor of the Save SA Campaign, says that “we believe he is no longer deserving to lead this country”, this is what he is talking about – a president who has shown total disdain for the public.

This is why he can continue to ignore calls to step down. These have grown to something of a chorus, but he seems impervious.

Already there is speculation that President Zuma will challenge the public protector’s report in court. In truth, given his track record, it would be astonishing if he didn’t.

In other words, South Africans should expect that he will not implement the remedial actions within 30 days as stipulated, but will rather file a court application to have them set aside. And he will not accept any responsibility for any of the issues raised in the report.

In short, South Africans who expect this to be the final nail in President Zuma’s coffin are almost certainly going to be disappointed. He will not step down, because he will argue that he has not been found guilty of any wrongdoing, and he will not be pushed out by the ANC.

He will continue to dodge and defy and survive.

Which is why the civil society movement that took hold in the morning before the report was released may ultimately prove more significant than the report itself. President Zuma can, and almost certainly will, defy the public protector for at least some time. He cannot, however, sustain his position in the face of a society turning fully against him.

Ultimately, there will come a point when the ANC has only one option in order to save itself, and that will be to insist that he goes. It has not reached that point yet, but it is drawing nearer.

When people like Cheryl Carolus start saying things like President Zuma is “not capable of leading either the ANC or our country”, then the noose is closing. When the ANC caucus in parliament begins to show signs of restlessness, as it has begun to do, then his position is slowly becoming untenable.

So President Zuma will survive this day. The report will not be his immediate undoing. He is, however, unlikely to survive much longer.

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