How much will chocolate cost you, and why?

South Africans should brace to pay extra for a bar of chocolate in the coming weeks due to an increase in cocoa prices.

Mondelez International’s CEO Dirk Van de Put confirmed the news during his address at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference, which was held in Boca Raton, Florida, on 18 February 2025.

He is anticipating chocolate lovers will pay at least 50% more for their treats.

Mondelez owns brands such as Cadbury, Halls, Milka, Oreo, and Sour Patch.

What influences chocolate prices

According to Just Food, Van de Put said he believes cocoa prices will come down over time, but not to the level in 2021.

“Therefore, we’re doing significant price increases in the meantime.”

Cocoa is among the multiple food industries where manufacturers are facing challenges.

“The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) campaign introduced by [United States] President [Donald]Trump will also likely result in price hikes across Mondelez’s portfolio if it must “reformulate.”

ALSO READ: Record heat rots cocoa beans threatening Ivory Coast agriculture

How much will chocolate cost you?

“First views are that the elasticity is quite good and probably a bit better than we would have expected.

“Consumers will need to get used to chocolate that is 30%, 40%, and 50% more expensive than it used to be because that is what we’re going to see. But I do think volume will hold up.”

He added that about 91% of Mondelez’s cocoa volumes sourced for its chocolate brands derive from Cocoa Life, which aims to “lift up the people and restore the landscapes where cocoa is growing”.

ALSO READ: Who profits from the soaring price of cocoa?

Cocoa’s state

However, the cocoa industry remains well above historical levels.

Mid-2024, international cocoa prices increased due to fear of cocoa shortage.

Leeuwner Esterhuysen, an Economist at Oxford Economics Africa, said the national industry regulator, Cocobod, has decided to determine, based on total output, how much of the 2024/2025 crop can be sold.

He said the statement by Cocobod to allocate cocoa equitably has sparked fear that Ghana’s crop may not recover as had been hoped, which has resulted in an uptick in cocoa prices.

“Ghana has postponed the delivery of at least 250 000 tonnes of cocoa from the current season to the 2024/2025 season, which runs from October 2024 till September 2025.”

What is MAHA?

MAHA aims to investigate what is causing the decades-long increase in chronic illness.

The commission that will lead the investigations will study the childhood chronic disease “crisis” and any potential causes, including “the American diet, absorption of toxic material, medical treatments, lifestyle, environmental factors, government policies, food production techniques, electromagnetic radiation, and corporate influence or cronyism.”

The commission will also “advise and assist the president on informing the American people regarding the childhood chronic disease crisis”.

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