A RECENT analysis from the Institute for Water and Wastewater Technology (IWWT) indicates that KwaZulu-Natal is already experiencing the third wave of Covid-19 infections.
IWWT, which is situated at the Durban University of Technology, is at the forefront of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in Southern Africa.
The institute, led by the award-winning Professor Faizal Bux and assisted by Professor Sheena Kumari, plays a critical role in monitoring and tracking Covid-19 infection spread in Durban.
According to the team, the peak of the second wave in South Africa occurred in January 2021, with an average of 40 000 active cases in KZN. As a metro, the eThekwini Municipality is a good reflection of the pandemic trend in KZN.
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The team revealed that the viral loads at the Central Wastewater Treatment Plant during this peak period averaged at 4.72 log copies per 100 ml.
However, viral loads over the last four weeks (11 – 27 May 2021) averaged at 5.57 log copies per 100 ml of wastewater, which was far higher than what was observed during the peak of the second wave.
According to the team, this indicated that eThekwini Municipality may already be experiencing the third wave of Covid-19 infections – and that there was a greater number of infected individuals within the community than what is currently being reported.
“According to recent clinical data, the number of active cases in KZN and the eThekwini Municipality began to rise steadily since 20 April 2021. However, we have started observing the spike in viral loads in wastewater since 30 March 2021, almost 3 weeks before the actual clinically confirmed cases were reported. This indicates that wastewater-based epidemiology may be used as a predictive tool for surges in Covid-19 infections and that frequent monitoring is required for future wave predictions,” said Bux.
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According to Professor Bux, this technology can and should be expanded for application at sub-district level by testing sewage from sewer networks servicing suburbs.
The DUT team at the IWWT believes there may be more asymptomatic carriers in the community that could potentially spread the virus.
They have shared these key findings with the relevant authorities including the provincial Department of Health (KZN DOH) and the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).
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