#IMadeMyMark: KZN could be hung, predicts poll
The poll also shows that this is the most fluid national election to date,
ACCORDING to the recent Institute of Race Relations (IRR) tracking poll, the ANC could get less than 55% votes and KwaZulu-Natal could be hung, depending on a range of factors, including a last-minute ANC surge and turnout. The poll also shows that this is the most fluid national election to date, in particular with regards to the ANC and EFF, who have traded support one way and the other among around five to eight percent of black voters since September.
“Our May Election Poll was in the field between 27 April and 4 May 2019. It was structured as a Tracking Poll, using a Five-Day Moving Average and it covered the national ballot, as well as the provincial ballot in Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. For each, we have presented the “Daily Track”, so that you can see, on a daily basis, how party support moved leading up to Saturday 4 May, the final day on which the IRR Tracking Poll ran,” said Gareth van Onselen, IRR Head of Politics and Governance.
With regards to the DA, the poll showed that the party is marginally up among black voters, but down among white voters, from 2014. The ANC is significantly down among Coloured voters from 2014.
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The EFF is up significantly relative to 2014. This will set up an interesting dynamic between that party and the ANC over the next five years, for which, as of 4 May, it appears Gauteng will be the first test.
The DA is also expected to hold the Western Cape relatively comfortably, despite its recent difficulties in the province.
“This survey is not a prediction. It is not possible to precisely predict the election result. We are, however, confident our data is accurate for the period under review. Thus, all this survey can tell you is the nature of the electoral market in the week preceding the election, and suggest where some of the trend lines are headed, with four days to go until the election. As you will see, there is some fluidity in the market, and the last few days will likely see some small movement. If history is a guide, it will be towards the bigger parties. From these numbers, anyone can draw a prediction should they wish. We leave the art of prediction up to you, the public,” said van Onselen.
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The Polls are all conducted by Victory Research. Victory Research is an independent South African opinion research company, owned and operated by Johan van der Berg and Ryan Coetzee.
This poll is not a prediction. It is a snapshot in time, in this case of the electoral market between 27 April and 4 May 2019. Likewise, the numbers presented in the poll are not absolutely definitive. A 3.0% national margin of error means, for example, the DA – which comes out with 22.7% – could be on 25.7% or 19.7%. A confidence level of 95% means we are confident 95% of the time the findings
will never vary more than 3.0 percentage points up or down from reality.
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