The South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium and the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) have released their national long-term projections for Covid-19 in South Africa.
The projection model includes a pessimistic increase in the number of detected cases of 76 106 by June 1.
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Both scenarios are based on the availability of testing and effectiveness of the lockdown.
The modelling consortium is made up of a group of researchers from academic, non-profit and government institutions across South Africa.
The group is coordinated by the NICD on behalf of the National Department of Health.
The mandate of the group is to provide, assess and validate model projections to be used for planning purposes by the government of South Africa.
The South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium was established to project the spread of the disease to support policy and planning in South Africa over the coming months.
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Due to the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally, and in South Africa, the projections are updated regularly as new data becomes available.
Additionally, changes in testing policy, contact tracing and hospitalisation criteria will all impact the cases detected and treated, as well as the required budget for Covid-19 response in the next six months.
The model, dated May 6, projects that the cumulative number of deaths by June 1 could be up to 940.
The lockdown is anticipated to have flattened the curve and delayed the peak by two to three months, depending on the strength of the public’s adherence to the lockdown and social distancing measures.
The modelling consortium anticipates that South Africa is likely to see a peak demand for hospital and ICU beds between August and September.
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However, based on current resource levels, model projections indicate that the number of available hospital and ICU beds will likely be exhausted by July.
The modelling consortium stated that the ICU and hospital bed numbers are to be interpreted with caution as the severity of the disease is yet to be contextualised to South Africa, and admission to ICU is likely to be subject to stricter criteria than globally.
The National Department of Health’s (NDOH) Covid-19 budget will be between R10-billion and R15-b and as such is affordable under the current R20-b Rand budget allocation for the medical Covid-19 response.
The consortium estimates that by November 1 there will be between 3.4 to 3.7 million laboratory-confirmed cases of Covid-19, with the number of deaths expected to be between 34 015 and 49 774.
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The required total budget for the national and provincial departments of health will be between R26-b and R32-b over the next six months, of which between R10-b and R15-b Rand will accrue to the NDOH.
This budget covers personal protective equipment, the cost of additional ICU and hospital beds and staff, additional PHC staff, ventilators, drugs, isolation facilities, testing and surveillance and Port Health budgets.
Data considerations:
Due to the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the projections will need to be updated regularly and should be interpreted with caution.
The models have been developed using data that is subject to a high degree of uncertainty.
All models are simplifications of reality that are designed to describe and predict system behaviour and are justified by the assumptions and data with which they are developed.
Projected epidemic curves (total active infections) under the 5-week lockdown scenario compared to a hypothetical scenario with no lockdown:
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