While experts predict that the ruling party would win the upcoming elections, the race to the finish line would be tighter this year.
A November 2013 survey to determine political party support ahead to the 2014 election by Ipsos, an international company that conducts online surveys, revealed that the ruling party is currently less popular with eligible voters than it was ahead of the 2009 election.
Comparing the results of the surveys conducted among randomly selected South Africans ahead of the 2009 and 2014 elections, Ipsos found that the overall support of the ANC fell from 63 percent in November 2008 to 53 percent in November 2013.
Meanwhile, senior analyst at Political Analysis, Mzoxolo Mpolase said the true reflection of the ANC’s support base would be determined at the upcoming elections.
He said based on polling data, the ANC would win the upcoming elections, but factors such as the Nkandla scandal and service non-delivery could impact the margin by which it did.
“Voting behaviour is difficult to pinpoint, and is not usually delimited to media coverage cycles and topical events such as the recently released parliamentary list and naturally, the upcoming report on Nkandla,” he said.
The Nkandla incident is perceived as an expression of self-advancement and self-enrichment by a public representative and, above all, a blatant expression of the State’s malicious spending of public funds, he explained.
Coupled with the challenges directly related to the ANC’s administration, new parties such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Agang SA also pose a threat to the ruling party’s support base.
Mpolase noted that the EFF would secure the support and vote of former ANC supporters and members.
“Structurally, the party mirrors the structure found within the ANC and naturally embraces a much more radical interpretation of some of the ANC’s values.”
This, he said, would resonate with former ANC supporters, who may feel that their views were not adequately accommodated within the ANC.
While the young voters’, specifically ‘born-frees’, votes and the impact they would have on election results were a point of interest, Mpolase believed that the youth were predominantly influenced by the experiences of their elders and would vote as such.
“Voting is an emotional response to some extent. And the youth are a product of the lives lived by those before them, and as such their
understanding of the world is not as far removed from that of their parents or that of older generations.”
