Are there 13, 14 or 15 million hungry people in South Africa?

Calling for an end to the “hunger crisis” which sees “14 million people going to bed hungry”, the South African Food Sovereignty Campaign plans to hold a bread march against hunger in Johannesburg, South Africa on Friday 13 May. Claims about the number of hungry people in South Africa appear to bounce around this figure. Earlier this year Democratic Alliance member of parliament, Kevin Mileham, claimed that “15 million people in South Africa are already unable to feed themselves on a daily basis”. Former trade union leader, Zwelinzima Vavi, claimed that the number stands at 13 million.

‘A dynamic and complex phenomenon’

Estimating the number of hungry people in South Africa isn’t an easy task, according to the experts.

“Big numbers like these are useful politically to communicate the urgency and seriousness of food insecurity,” says Florian Kroll, a food systems researcher at the University of the Witwatersrand’s Siyakhana Initiative for Ecological Health and Food Security.

“But any such number is constantly shifting as food insecurity is a dynamic and complex phenomenon.”

Africa Check was unable to find a study which concluded that 13, 14 or 15 million people in South Africa reported experiencing hunger. The 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey estimated that 26% of households were “experiencing hunger”. A further 28.3% were “at risk of hunger” while the remaining 45.6% had food security.

“But that 26% is in terms of households, not in terms of people,” Professor Nelia Steyn, head of the University of Cape Town’s division of human nutrition, told Africa Check.

Determining how many hungry people there are in South Africa is not as straightforward as calculating 26% of the population. (Note: This is possibly how figures of around 14 million emerged – 26% of South Africa’s current estimated population of 55 million is 14.3 million.)

But such a calculation is not correct according to senior research specialist at the Human Social Research Council, Dr Zandile Mchiza.

“It is important to note that not everyone in one household will experience the same vulnerability,” Mchiza told Africa Check.

“Some individuals could be going to bed without food, some could be having less than recommended amounts of food while some could be just fine.”

An example of this, she said, was parents sacrificing food so that their children would not go hungry.

7 million people experienced hunger

Both Steyn and Mchiza recommended that data from the general household survey carried out by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) be used to verify the claim.

“Currently we have to trust the Stats SA data since it is the only survey that keeps track of what is happening in the country,” Mchiza said.

In 2014, Stats SA reported that 1,760,946 households (11.4% of all households) “contained an adult or a child that reported going hungry in the past 12 months”. But, as Steyn and Mchiza explained, this does not mean that everyone in the household went hungry.

At the individual level, just over 7 million individuals (13.1% of the population) reported experiencing hunger in the last year.

Hunger at household and individual level has declined substantially since Stats SA started measuring it in 2002. That year 13,422,028 people (29.3%) reported experiencing hunger.

‘More sensitive measure of food access’

Measuring the subjective feeling of hunger – which may vary between households and people – doesn’t reveal the state of food access in the country.

“Many people are able to avoid the worst hunger by reducing dietary quality,” Kroll said.

He said this is commonly done by eating more cheap refined carbohydrates and low-quality oils and meats.

Conclusion: Hunger estimates half of what is claimed

There is no evidence to support claims that 13, 14 or 15 million people are experiencing hunger in South Africa.

A 2014 nationally representative survey revealed that there were 7 million individuals who reported experiencing feeling hungry.

The same survey also measured food access. Based on this assessment, 14,060,929 people (26.2%) reported that they did not have adequate food access. However, experts say it should not be assumed that they were experiencing hunger.

Article researched and supplied by Africa Check. Follow them on Facebook and Twitter for more groundbreaking stories.