Coalitions: Parties cannot micromanage coalitions
Power struggles and instability marked the coalitions formed after the 2016 municipal elections, but multi-party politics is here to stay, and parties have to put their differences aside and make decisions based on what is good for the residents, says an independent analyst.
The former leader of the FF+, Dr Pieter Mulder, predicted that coalition politics would become a reality in South Africa long before 2016.
“The FF+ will not get over 50% in Nelson Mandela Bay metro, for example, nor will the DA. Make peace with this and push for coalitions,” Mulder told South African political parties in 2011.
It was only in 2016 that his prediction came true, when the DA won more votes than the ANC and formed a coalition to run Nelson Mandela Bay. The multi-party coalition failed dismally, however, with the DA losing control of the metro, mayors coming and going, and the city nearly being placed under administration.
Despite the challenges in Nelson Mandela Bay and other coalition metros formed after the 2016 municipal elections, the prediction that multi-party politics is the future of South Africa was reinforced in the November municipal elections, with 66 hung municipalities that can only by governed by a coalition.
Independent analyst Wayne Sussman says South Africa finds itself in a ‘fascinating situation’ – especially in the metros.
He says the ANC started last week with a victory in Nelson Mandela Bay, when Eugene Johnson won the mayor’s chair by one vote from Nqaba Bhanga (60–59).
Then we saw the withdrawal of Refiloe Nt’sekhe as mayoral candidate for the DA, and her fellow party member Tania Campbell being elected mayor after ActionSA and the EFF decided to vote against the ANC.
Nt’sekhe says she withdrew because she thought the DA had little chance of winning or of governing a stable coalition, given how many more votes the ANC had won.
The DA’s Dr Mpho Phalatse became mayor of Johannesburg, again with the help of the EFF and ActionSA, and the DA’s Randall Williams was re-elected unopposed in Tshwane.
“The DA is in a stronger position than expected, yet extremely vulnerable because they are dependent on Herman Mashaba [ActionSA] and Julius Malema [EFF],” says Sussman.
According to him, the DA will have to walk a very fine line. The big question is whether these mayors can rise above the national ego and tension and find local solutions, he says.
Sussman is of the opinion that the current situation gives the EFF a chance to make ground on the political playing field.
Even though the DA and EFF are ideologically disparate – and the DA is on record saying it will not compromise its principles, Malema realises that if he can remove the ANC from as many municipalities as possible, he has a chance to grow on the road to 2024, says Sussman.
“This is also a golden opportunity for Helen Zille and John Steenhuisen – and this also extends to the EFF and ActionSA. Do they have the discipline to empower their local representatives to make the decisions that will first and foremost be the best for the residents of those metros and large municipalities? And will those local benefits spill over and help the party on a national level?
“Zille and Steenhuisen cannot be allowed to micromanage these coalitions,” he says.
WATCH: Political analyst Wayne Sussman chats to journalist Izak du Plessis about coalitions politics in South Africa.
